Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia     

Guobin Fu  Stephen P. Charles  Sergey Kirshner 《水文研究》2013,27(25):3663-3673

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Great Lakes estuaries     

Charles E. Herdendorf 《Estuaries and Coasts》1990,13(4):493-503

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Jari: A pulp plantation in the Brazilian Amazon     

Dr. Carl F. Jordan  Dr. Charles E. Russell 《GeoJournal》1989,19(4):429-435

Jari plantation is the largest pulp growing operation in the humid tropics, and occupies about 1000 sqkm previously covered by tropical forest. A study of five sites at Jari in 1980 indicated declining soil fertility, and low productivity of pulpwood. Low pulp production at Jari was caused by several factors, one of which appeared to be low soil fertility. The sams sites were re-evaluated in 1987. There was no discernable trend in either nutrients or productivity since 1980.Although productivity and nutrient stocks may have stabilized, low profitability caused by low pulp production resulted in the sale of Jari in 1982, for a $ 720 million loss. Despite growth rates at Jari which were too low to produce a profit on original investment, another plantation is planned for the eastern Amazon which is 10 times the size of Jari.  相似文献   

Subduction and back-arc activity at the Hikurangi convergent Margin,New Zealand     

Euan G. C. Smith  Tim Stern  Martin Reyners 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(1-2):203-231

The Hikurangi Margin is a region of oblique subduction with northwest-dipping intermediate depth seismicity extending southwest from the Kermadec system to about 42°S. The current episode of subduction is at least 16–20 Ma old. The plate convergence rate varies along the margin from about 60 mm/a at the south end of the Kermadec Trench to about 45 mm/a at 42°S. The age of the Pacific lithosphere adjacent to the Hikurangi Trench is not known.The margin divides at about latitude 39°S into two quite dissimilar parts. The northern part has experienced andesitic volcanism for about 18 Ma, and back-arc extension in the last 4 Ma that has produced a back-arc basin onshore with high heaflow, thin crust and low upper-mantle seismic velocities. The extension appears to have arisen from a seawards migration of the Hikurangi Trench north of 39°S. Here the plate interface is thought to be currently uncoupled, as geodetic data indicate extension of the fore-arc basin, and historic earthquakes have not exceededM _s=7.South of 39°S there is no volcanism and a back-arc basin has been produced by downward flexure of the lithosphere due to strong coupling with the subducting plate. Heatflow in the basin is normal. Evidence for strong coupling comes from historic earthquakes of up to aboutM _s=8 and high rates of uplift on the southeast coast of the North Island.The reason for this division of the margin is not known but may be related to an inferred increase, from northeast to southwest, in the buoyancy of the Pacific lithosphere.  相似文献   

Brine Discharge and Salinization, Concho River Watershed, West Texas     

Alan R. Dutton  Bernd C. Richter  Charles W. Kreitler 《Ground water》1989,27(3):375-383

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Phase equilibrium and calorimetric study of the transition of MnTiO3 from the ilmenite to the lithium niobate structure and implications for the stability field of perovskite     

Jaidong Ko  Nancy E. Brown  Alexandra Navrotsky  Charles T. Prewitt  Tibor Gasparik 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1989,16(8):727-733

The phase boundary between MnTiO₃ I (ilmenite structure) and MnTiO₃ II (lithium niobate structure) has been determined by analysis of quench products from reversal experiments in a cubic anvil apparatus at 1073–1673 K and 43–75 kbar using mixtures of MnTiO₃ I and II as starting materials. Tight brackets of the boundary give P(kbar)=121.2−0.045 T(K). Thermodynamic analysis of this boundary gives ΔH^o=5300±1000 J·mol⁻¹, ΔS^o = 1.98 ±1J·K⁻¹· mol⁻¹. The enthalpy of transformation obtained directly by transposed-temperature-drop calorimetry is 8359 ±2575 J·mol⁻¹. Possible topologies of the phase relations among the ilmenite, lithium niobate, and perovskite polymorphs are constrained using the above data and the observed (reversible with hysteresis) transformation of II to III at 298 K and 20–30 kbar (Ross et al. 1989). The observed II–III transition is likely to lie on a metastable extension of the II–III boundary into the ilmenite field. However the reversed I–II boundary, with its negative dP/ dT does represent stable equilibrium between ilmenite and lithium niobate, as opposed to the lithium niobate being a quench product of perovskite. We suggest a topology in which the perovskite occurs stably at low T and high P with a triple point (I, II, III) at or below 1073 K near 70 kbar. The I–II boundary would have a negative P-T slope while the II–III and I–III boundaries would be positive, implying that entropy decreases in the order lithium niobate, ilmenite, perovskite. The inferred positive slope of the ilmenite-perovskite transition in MnTiO₃ is different from the negative slopes in silicates and germanates. These thermochemical parameters are discussed in terms of crystal structure and lattice vibrations.  相似文献   

History of the International Association of Geodesy     

Charles Whitten 《Journal of Geodesy》1988,62(3):197-206

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A simple model for strong ground motions and response spectra     

Erdal Safak  Charles Mueller  John Boatwright 《地震工程与结构动力学》1988,16(2):203-215

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The Combined EMT/VES Geophysical Method for Siting Boreholes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sarah Beeson  Charles R. C. Jonesa 《Ground water》1988,26(1):54-63

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DISCUSSION OF "Statistical Prediction Intervals for the Evaluation of Ground-Water Quality," by Robert D. Gibbons, July-August 1987 issue, v. 25, no. 4, pp. 455–465     

Charles B. Davis  Roger J. McNichols 《Ground water》1988,26(1):90-91

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